Geography of Newspaper Endorsements in the 2008 US Presidential Election
First in a series of visualizations / experiments with interconnecting datasets:
Geography of Newspaper Endorsements in the 2008 US Presidential Election
Apart from the unsurprising evidence that (choose one: [[Obama is the overwhelming choice]] -OR- [[there is overwhelming liberal media bias]]), I’m struck by the mismatch between papers’ endorsements and their “Red State” vs “Blue State” alignment.
- I think the amount of red in the blue states is a market effect. If you’re the Boston Herald, there’s no percentage in agreeing with the Boston Globe; similarly Daily News vs New York Post, SF Examiner vs SF Chronicle. That’s why the Tribune endorsement, even accounting for hometown bias, is so striking. I don’t mean that they’re cynically pandering; rather that in a market with multiple papers readers, and journalists are efficiently sorted into two separate camps. (And the axis doesn’t have to be political: though the Chronic and the Statesman are politically distinct I see their main difference being lifestyle vs. traditional news).
- The amount of blue in the red states highlights how foolishly incomplete the “Red State/Blue State” model is for anything but electoral college returns. The largest part of the Red/Blue split is Rural/Urban — look at the electoral cartogram for the last election and almost every city is blue, even in the south and mountain; and almost all of our rural areal is red. The exceptions, chiefly Dallas, Houston and Boise, stand noticeably alone as having red unpaired with blue. (Though in this election even the Houston Chronicle is endorsing Obama.)I’m going to try to make a map colored by county, but there are no good off-the-shelf tools for doing this (that I’ve found).
This seems to speak of why so many on the right feel there’s a MSM bias — 50% of the country is urban, 50% rural, but newspapers are located exclusively in urban areas [see below]. So, surprisingly, the major right-leaning papers are all located in parts of the country we consider highly leftish. The urban areas that are the largest are thus both the most liberal and the most likely to have a sizeable conservative target audience.
[-- Edit:
Several people have asked me to justify my claim that the US is "50% urban, 50% rural". I should have been more specific about that, because I’m using the terms loosely.
Here is a nice rule-of-thumb table:
Rank City, State Population Fraction of
(approx) US population
United States ~ 300 million all
1 New York, NY ~ 19 million ~ 1/16
10 Boston, MA ~ 5 million ~ 1/4
50 Rochester, NY ~ 1 million ~ 1/2
100 Daytona Beach, FL ~ 500 thousand ~ 2/3
200 Rockford, TX ~ 200 thousand ~ 3/4
363 Carson City, NV ~ 90 thousand ~ 82%
These are, of course, rough figures (though their mostly-coincidental values line up extremely well). I put the spreadsheet I used over here, and I'll have all this up on infochimps.org later this week.
About 50% of the population lives within the boundaries of the top-50 metro areas, cities with 1M or more of population. Metropolitan areas are tautologically Urban, but at right about #50 you go from cities like Memphis and Salt Lake City to cities like Bethlehem/Allentown PA and Fresno, CA and Tulsa, OK. Wherever you draw the line between big and small city, life in an out-of-the-top-50ish metro area has a different flavor than life in a top-50ish metro.
I'm working on a separate post showing that political preference is part of that flavor, and that the political transition occurs near that boundary as well.
Finally, numbers supporting the claim that major newspapers are located almost exclusively in large cities:
- All of the top-25 papers by circulation are in cities of 2M (Sacramento) or larger.
- All of the top-50 papers are in cities of 1.2M (Oklahoma City) or larger.
- Only 20% of the top-100 papers are in cities smaller than 1M.
The preponderance of newspapers are located in major metropolitan areas -- click for larger version.
Half of the country is urban, and half rural? Not in terms of land – that skews far toward rural areas – and not in terms of population. Most Americans live in urban areas.
The 2000 Census put 80.3% of the US population in cities and suburbs.
http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/censr-4.pdf
David Ramos
24 Oct 2008 at 1:14 pm
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/GCTTable?_bm=y&-geo_id=01000US&-_box_head_nbr=GCT-P1&-ds_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U&-format=US-1
It’s not 50-50 urban-rural. It’s 80-20 urban-rural.
Felix
24 Oct 2008 at 1:16 pm
“50% of the country is urban, 50% rural”
What does this mean? By population, 80% of the the US is urban or nearby suburban. 20% is rural.
John Forrest Tomlinson
24 Oct 2008 at 1:16 pm
The map is fantastic, but I wonder about your conclusion about “50% of the country is urban, 50% rural, but newspapers are located exclusively in urban areas.”
I’m fairly certain that this isn’t necessarily true. Maybe the first part is true given a strict definition of “urban” and “rural” and the second part is true for your inclusion criteria (”newspapers tracked by editor & publisher”), but I think that this assertion needs clarification.
josh
24 Oct 2008 at 1:30 pm
I should have been more specific about that, because I’m using the term loosely. I’m referring to the easy-to-remember stat that about 50% of the population lives within the boundaries of the top-50 metro areas (which is right around the 1M population mark):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_United_States_Metropolitan_Statistical_Areas
All of the Metropolitan areas are tautologically Urban, but at right about #50 you go from cities like Austin and Richmond and Salt Lake City to cities like Bethlehem/Allentown PA and Fresno, CA and Tulsa, OK.
I see a subjective but clear cultural demarcation between the cities well below that #50 (50%, 1M pop) line from those above. Agree? Disagree?
===
I will make a better case for the second claim — brb with a listing of top-100-papers-by-circulation vs. population-rank-of-metro-area.
mrflip
24 Oct 2008 at 1:38 pm
Nice, nice map — I like the visualization of the data this way, it’s *much* more accessible.
One question: you list eight newspapers in the “2008 McCain endorsement, 2004 Kerry endorsement” list, but only four of them appear to have endorsed Kerry in 2004. The DC Examiner, Baltimore Examiner, Wichita Falls Times Record News, and Chambersburg Public Opinion are all in your list with “(none)” for their 2004 endorsements, and the E&P list agrees with this. Shouldn’t they be moved into the “2008 McCain, 2004 Bush or none” list?
Jason
24 Oct 2008 at 2:19 pm
That is an amazing amount of information and presented in a terrific format.
Thank you very much for the time and effort you put into this.
IMO, McCain has run such a terrible campaign that I am sincerely surpised that no one is accusing him of deliberately trying to loose.
Short of deciding not to pick his nose in public (that photo after the last debate was close to being as ridiculous though), every other decision he has made seems to have been a deliberate attempt to sabotage his own campaign. Amazing.
J.
james
24 Oct 2008 at 3:10 pm
@jason Good catch. They changed the notation for ‘none’ from ‘N/A’ to ‘N’ and then the parser frammis ran up against the jimjam straightener and … yeah. It’s fixed now.
mrflip
24 Oct 2008 at 3:13 pm
You have totally fed my obsession w/newspaper endorsements!! THANK YOU. :)
Jill
25 Oct 2008 at 6:41 am
[...] really know why, for sure, but thanks to Andrew Sullivan for this link. Observations posted at the accompanying blog post that explains more about the [...]
[graphic] Interactive geographical map of newspaper endorsements : Writes Like She Talks
25 Oct 2008 at 6:59 am
I suppose we’re waiting for #2, the Wall Street Journal, to come out for John McCain/Snowbilly Palin and then perhaps you could graph the language of the editorial endorsements. That would be interesting. See how many use the word “terrorism” and “Bush” and “tax cuts” and “William Ayers.” What’s more interesting to me are the smaller, red states with Obama endorsements. I suppose the NY Post (a Murdoch property) isn’t a surprise, but New Yorkers are very much for an Obama presidency.
Are TV stations also going to issue endorsements? Could also provide an interesting tracking interactive.
MR / Paris, France
MATTHEW ROSE
25 Oct 2008 at 2:06 pm
One of your “mismatches” is due to your map being wrong. The Fargo Forum (red) is located in North Dakota (red…although possibly turning blue at this point in time), not Minnesota (blue).
Mary
25 Oct 2008 at 6:18 pm
@Mary – This is actually due to the map program. Because of the map projection used there’s some lateral error in the center of the country, where lies four of the five states I’ve never visited. I’ve tweaked the projection, hopefully without messing anything else up, to make Fargo, Omaha and KC line up right. Thanks!
mrflip
25 Oct 2008 at 10:49 pm
Thanks so much for this – definitely makes the info way more accessible, as noted by another commenter.
Re your ‘market effect’ comment concerning red papers in blue states: totally on target as least as far as the Baltimore Examiner goes. The paper came to be solely to cater to what it considered an under-served market of affluent and relatively conservative households in the Baltimore area.
Also, the circulation number is a sore point for many Baltimoreans (or Baltimorons, wev). The paper is free, and automatically delivered to homes in wealthier zip codes. It is such a pain to get them to stop delivering, in fact, that some households have taken to using little “No to the Examiner!” lawn signs to deter the delivery person.
Alexa
26 Oct 2008 at 1:10 am
Minnesota’s paper’s are endorsing… startribune.com/opinion
Ed
26 Oct 2008 at 1:57 am
What about the Deseret News in Salt Lake City, Utah? I was as surprised as anyone when the Tribune went with Obama–but there is a more conservative paper in SLC to offset.
Jane
26 Oct 2008 at 5:48 am
Don’t forget to add the Anchorage Daily News’ endorsement of Obama: http://www.adn.com/opinion/view/story/567867.html
Jeff
26 Oct 2008 at 8:28 am
@Alexa — hilarious… I have another fun infographic coming expanding on this point.
@Jeff, @Ed — thanks! There are a heap of others coming down the pipe:
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003877935
I am going to spend the day at my favorite candidate’s vol. office, so I probably won’t update the map until E&P releases their full list on Monday.
@Jane — I can’t find the Deseret News’ endorsement. Linkplz?
mrflip
26 Oct 2008 at 11:13 am
[...] Interesante mapa de Infochimps para conocer qué candidato apoya cada medio en Estados Unidos. Además de incluir las próximas elecciones, muestra a quién apoyó en el 2004 y la llegada que tiene ese medio. La mayoría se inclinó por Obama. Más explicaciones del caso aquí. [...]
A qué candidato apoyan los medios de EEUU | Sicrono
26 Oct 2008 at 2:13 pm
Anchorage Daily News endorses Obama.
http://www.adn.com/opinion/view/story/567867.html
Fernando Enrique Ziegler
26 Oct 2008 at 4:05 pm
Interesting, but here’s my question:
By 2012, given current economic and industry trends, how many of the newspapers listed will have merged with other papers, will just be barely hanging on, or have completely folded?
Here’s my prognostication: a lot more than you’d think. In sum, I suspect the Dinosaur Media is too afraid to look up, because, if it did, it knows it would see the asteroid streaking in.”
New version of an old joke:
“Say, friend, who will the New York Times endorse for President in 2012?”
“Your question is irrelevant, old man, because there will be no New York Times in 2012.”
MarkJ
26 Oct 2008 at 4:36 pm
The Baltimore Sun endorses Obama. ‘Bout time. http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/bal-ed.endorse26oct26,0,725660.story
Is there a handy zoom tool that I’m missing? The map is crazy crowded in spots.
Thanks again!
Alexa
26 Oct 2008 at 7:58 pm
San Mateo, CA is in the SF Bay Area (just south of SF), not in the LA area. Probably confused with San Marino by whomever created the map.
Rich
27 Oct 2008 at 8:48 am
St Pete Times endorsed Obama:
http://www.tampabay.com/opinion/editorials/article870039.ece
Heather
27 Oct 2008 at 3:01 pm
The New Orleans Times-Picayune endorsed Obama in yesterday’s paper: http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/index.ssf?/base/news-5/1225117809301070.xml&coll=1
They endorsed Bush in ‘04.
kate
27 Oct 2008 at 3:19 pm
Arizona Republic endorsed McCain over the weekend.
phxgators
27 Oct 2008 at 3:56 pm
The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel endorsed Obama on October 25:
http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/33263704.html
The web version of this editorial is not clearly marked as an endorsement, although the link off thew paper’s main page contains that label.
Peter S.
27 Oct 2008 at 4:05 pm
Sorry. Forgot to note that the Milw. Journal-Sentinel endorsed Kerry in 2004, a fact that your chart/map does not register:
http://www2.jsonline.com/news/editorials/oct04/270120.asp
(And the Minn. Star-Trib is in now for Obama)
Peter S.
27 Oct 2008 at 4:14 pm
i found this article interesting in explaining why my town seems to be going against its state “color”: http://www.texasobserver.org/article.php?aid=2869
i did find it odd that the Hou Chron endorsed Obama, but since i get so much of my daily news from sources other than the Hou Chron, i am outside of being aware of any changes happening inside the newspaper. maybe the Hou Chron finally has smelled the coffee and wondered why so many people such as myself ignore their product for news.
thanks for your work and the interesting graph/info. thought provoking stuff.
bcd
29 Oct 2008 at 2:53 pm
This is some good homework. I wonder what the map would look like if you compared it to polling. Who own the newspapers/who owns the polling companies?
ahrcanum
30 Oct 2008 at 6:04 am
the grand rapids press (michigan) endorsed mccain over the weekend…
http://www.mlive.com/grpress/opinion/index.ssf/2008/10/editorial_for_president_john_m.html
matty blue
30 Oct 2008 at 2:47 pm
Thanks for the endorsement links, all — the map is now updated, and I’ve brought in a few more years of endorsements.
The list is increasingly incomplete as you go back, but I have reasonable lists for 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008.
mrflip
31 Oct 2008 at 1:55 am
Thanks for the update!
BTW, it looks like it’s been USA TODAY’s policy NOT to endorse political candidates (see penultimate paragraph):
http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2008/10/fewer-newspaper.html
So you can move them to that no-show chart.
Peter S
31 Oct 2008 at 5:58 am
NY’s Newsday endorses Obama on Nov 1.
Jim C
3 Nov 2008 at 7:15 pm
I’m in Colorado campaigning for my candidate of choice and so the map may not get updated til after — but in the unlikely event I find an SSH conxn that Newsday endorse is worth an update, thanks.
Philip (flip) Kromer
4 Nov 2008 at 12:29 am
[...] in the days when it wasn’t oxymoronic to call oneself a progressive Republican.) Given that 54% of Americans live in urban areas with populations over 1 million (roughly the top fifty metro areas), it’s [...]
SmartRemarks » All roads lead to Rahm
11 Nov 2008 at 4:59 am